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Forecast validation: September to November 2009

A region of suppressed convection was forecast for the southwest Pacific encompassing Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands, Tonga, Fiji, New Caledonia, and Papua New Guinea. Near to below average rainfall was expected for those areas. Below average rainfall was forecast for the Marquesas. Near normal rainfall was forecast for Niue, Southern Cook Islands, Wallis & Futuna, the Austral Islands and Pitcairn Island. Enhanced convection was expected along the Equator extending from Western to Eastern Kiribati, and also near the Solomon Islands, with a forecast of near or above normal rainfall, with Western Kiribati and the Solomon Islands forecast to receive above normal rainfall. No clear precipitation guidance was offered for Vanuatu, Tuamotu Archipelago, Samoa, and the Society Islands.

The September–November 2009 forecast validation was calculated for 13 island groups (five Pacific Islands were forecast as climatology and were unscorable). The global island group ‘hit’ rate was 65%, 2% lower than average for September forecasts, and 4% higher than the average for all months combined. Rainfall was over projected for the Marquesas, and underprojected for Niue.Society Islands.