Forecast validation: August to October 2009

During August – October 2009, a region of suppressed convection was forecast for the southwest Pacific encompassing Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas. Below average rainfall was expected for those areas. Near to below average rainfall was expected for Papua New Guinea and the Society Islands.

Near normal rainfall was forecast for Niue, the Tuamotu Archipelago, New Caledonia, and Pitcairn Island. Enhanced convection was forecast along the Equator extending from Western to Eastern Kiribati, and in the area around the Southern Cook Islands and the Austral Islands. These regions were expected to receive near or above normal rainfall, with Western Kiribati forecast to receive above normal rainfall. No clear precipitation guidance was offered for Fiji, Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Tonga, Samoa, Wallis & Futuna, and the Solomon Islands.

The rainfall outlook for the August– October 2009 period was similar to what was forecast, the ‘hit’ rate being 72%. Rainfall was lower than expected in the Southern Cook Islands and Niue.