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Forecast validation: June to August 2009

Aregion of suppressed convection was forecast for the southwest Pacific encompassing Tokelau, Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas, and below average rainfall was expected for those areas. Near normal rainfall was forecast for Pitcairn Island and the Tuamotu Archipelago. Enhanced convection was expected around Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Western Kiribati, Vanuatu, Niue, Tonga, the Southern Cook Islands, and the Austral Islands, and average or above average rainfall was anticipated for June through August. No clear precipitation guidance was offered for Fiji, New Caledonia, Eastern Kiribati, Samoa, the Society Islands, or Wallis & Futuna.

The  June – August 2009 forecast validation was calculated for 12 island groups (two countries did not report rainfall values; six were forecast as climatology and were unscorable). The global island group ‘hit’ rate was 84%, 24% higher than average for June forecasts, and 23% higher than the average for all months combined.

Rainfall was overprojected for Tonga, and the northern part of the Tuamotu Archipelago, while it was underprojected for Tuvalu.