Introduction

July’s climate. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts.

Number 107 – August 2009

July’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was positioned southwest of normal, and contracted toward Papua New Guinea.
• Suppressed convection in the central part of the Southwest Pacific near Tokelau.
  
• Mostly well above normal rainfall for many parts of New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts

• El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, but region-wide atmospheric anomalies typical of El Niño are not as prominent. Many dynamical climate models project the continuation of El Niño through 2009.
  
• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tokelau, the Marquesas and the Northern Cook Islands.
  
• Above normal rainfall is expected for Western Kiribati. Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, the Southern Cook Islands, and the Austral Islands
  
• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Western Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands and the Austral Islands. Near normal SSTs are expected elsewhere in the southwest Pacific.
  

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